Week 17 Prediction

Pats 24 Dolphins 17

Not a good week for betting in a meaningless game. I was going to say that Sparano's job might be on the line but it has since been revealed that the Dolphins will keep him on another year. The Pats would do better letting the Dolphins win with the hopes that Raiders lose so their first round draft pick is higher. (This pick was from the Richard Seymour trade.) The Pats will ignore such advice and push hard to win taking out slightly injured players early in the game. I will assume that Tom Brady falls in this category with Brian Hoyer filling in for him. Even with the second stringers the Pats will be able to cover the 3 ½ point line and both teams will make it over the 43 point over/under.

Week 16 Prediction

Pats 31 Bills 20

Pats are not going to lose a hat and t-shirt game against the Bills. They have a chance to wrap up the division, first round bye, and top overall seed. Pats will cover the 8 point spread and both teams will beat the 44 ½ over/under.

Week 15 Prediction

Pats 31 Packers 17

Assuming Aaron Rodgers doesn't play on Sunday it's a lock for the Pats to beat the 9 point spread. It would be pretty shocking if the teams didn't hit the 44 point over.

Week 14 Prediction

Pats 27 Bears 21

The Bears have beaten many weak teams with Philly and Green Bay as the only exceptions. The Bears have been perfect since their bye week with a five game win streak. Expect the streak to end this Sunday at Soldier Field. Most of the Bears' games have been close and this one will be no exception. The Pats will just cover the 3 point spread and expect the teams to beat the 44 point over/under.

Patriots 2010 Contract Expirations

The Patriots are in unusually good position going into the offseason. With the uncertainty of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the Patriots have done a good job getting a majority of their roster signed through the 2011 season or beyond.

Logan Mankins is one player who probably jumps out at most people as someone the Patriots would want to get signed. No one on the rest of the list below would be a likely candidate for the franchise tag. If the new CBA has a franchise tag, the Machiavellian Bill Belichick will likely consider applying the tag to Mankins. Given the uncertainty with Stephen Neal's future at right guard, it would seem to be prudent to franchise Mankins. At the very least, Belichick could get a draft pick with a sign and trade.

For other players, my guess is that the Pats sign Matt Light for next year. It is difficult to replace a left tackle and Light/Vollmer at the tackles is likely a better combination than Vollmer/anyone. The one x-factor could be if the Pats get a top tackle in the 2011 draft.

 

Matt Light, OT, 32, $4.5 million, Free Agent

Fred Taylor, RB, 34, $2 million, Free Agent

Kevin Faulk, RB, 34, $2 million, Free Agent

Jarrad Page, DB, 26, $1.759 million, Free Agent

Sammy Morris, RB, 33, $900K, Free Agent

Gerard Warren, DL, 32, $900K, Free Agent

Logan Mankins, G, 28, $816K, Free Agent

Quinn Ojinnaka, OL, 26, $640K, Free Agent

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, 25, $470K, Restricted Free Agent

Tracy White, LB, 29, $470K, Free Agent

Ryan Wendell, OL, 24, $395K, Restricted Free Agent

Kyle Arrington, CB, 24, $395K, Exclusive Rights Free Agent

Shayne Graham, K, 32, $216K, Free Agent

Week 13 Prediction

Pats 27 Jets 20

Pats have been deadly at home and I wouldn't expect them to reverse the trend especially during a Monday night game against the Jets with ten days between games. Pats will beat the 3 point line and Pats and Jets will beat the over of 45.

Week 12 Prediction

Pats 38 Lions 20

Pats cover the 6 ½ points and both teams hit the 51 point over. Happy Thanksgiving.

Week 11 Prediction

Pats 31 Colts 24

The Colts have won one game on the road this season. Don't look for this stat to change especially with so many key personnel on the injury report. IR: Dallas Clark. OUT: Joseph Addai, Gary Brackett, Mike Hart, Bob Sanderrs, Clint Sessions, Justin Tryon. QUESTIONABLE: Austin Collie, Kelvin Hayden, Reggie Wayne, Blair White, and more. The Colts aren't built like the Patriots with a big middle class of players. The Colts have a bunch of high salaries at the top and many of those guys are injured. The Pats will cover the 4 point spread. Both teams will hit the 50 point over.

Week 10 Prediction

Steelers 23 Pats 20

Roethlisberger has only had one game at Heinz field this season, a 28-10 beat down of the Browns in week six which makes it hard to predict the score in this one. The Pats will cover the 4 ½ points but will lose outright while both teams won't put up enough to hit the 45. Take the under.

Mid Season Report Card

Just like the Patriots, I am 6 and 2 for both picking against the line and on the over/under.

In the two losing games against the line I had a blind spot for where the Pats got blown away by the Jets and the Browns. I picked the Pats to beat the line every game except the 14.5 point game against the Bills.

In the over/under I took the over for every game except the Ravens and Browns games. Good choice for the Ravens but not so good for the Browns. My second mistake was the taking the over in the Chargers game.

Betting with me for the first half of the season would have been a good investment. Let's see if I can keep it up for the second half.

Week 9 Prediction

Pats 27 Browns 17

Don't believe the trap game hype. The Browns inept offense will not be able to overcome the Pats dominant offense. Take the 4 points. My scientific scoring prediction landed on exactly an over/under of 44. Err on the side of the under if you must.

Week 8 Prediction

Pats 31 Vikings 24

Pats will cover the 5 point spread but the Vikings will be able to put points on the board as both teams blow away the 44 point over/under.

Week 7 Prediction

Pats 28 Chargers 27

My instincts tell me to pick the home team when there are so many variables up in the air... Chargers haven't scored less than 38 at home this season (in 2 games). Antonio Gates (7 TDs) is questionable. How will the Pats do on the road? How will the Pats do travelling to the west coast? What do you make of San Diego's three punts blocked, two opponents kick returns, and one opponent punt return this season? But most of the questions other than the road woes are on the Chargers side so the Pats will cover the 2 ½ points. Take the over; special teams scoring is fast and likely allowing for a higher overall score than 47 points.

Week 6 Prediction

Pats 24 Ravens 20

Ravens haven't scored more than 17 on the road. Ravens haven't allowed an opponent to score more than 17. The Pats game will break both trends and cover the 2 ½ points the Ravens are giving them. Take the under; 45 points is too rich for this game.

Week 4 Prediction

Pats 27 Dolphins 24

Pats are favored in Miami by 1. Give the point and take the Pats as they should be able to move the ball against the Miami defense. Miami's offense will be successful against the Pats' D as well so take the over. 46 ½ is too low.

Week 3 Prediction

Pats 31 Bills 17

Pats will break the recent trend in covering the spread at home in Bills games by only winning by two touchdowns. The 14 ½ is too rich to take. Forty three points is too low so take the over.

Week 2 Prediction

Pats 24 Jets 17

Jets offensive output will improve with fewer penalties but the Pats offense has many more weapons than last year. Pats cover the 3 point spread and the total score beats the over of 38.

J-E-T-S

Jets preseason hype has been ridiculous. They get rid of aging 1,400 rusher, Thomas Jones and bring in aging 730 yard rusher LaDanian Tomlinson and everyone thinks this is a brilliant move. Antonio Cromartie has more children that he can't name than interceptions over the past two seasons and everyone focuses what he did in 2007. Jason Taylor is 36 years old! How much does he have in the tank?

2002 is the last year the Jets won the division. Don't look for that to change for the 2010 season. Pats win the division. Jets are a wild card team.

Patriots’ Preseason Prediction

Pats are going to be much better than all of the pundits think. Patriots' offense will make up for some of the defensive deficiencies. Defensive backfield will gel for the second half of the season. Pats special teams will be better than past years. Pats will surprise with a 12 win season.

This week's prediction…

Pats 27 Bengals 24

Bengals will cover the 4.5 point spread but both team's offenses will blow away the 44.5 over/under.

Super Bowl Prediction

Colts 34 Saints 24

Colts beat the spread (Colts by 5) and both teams beat the Over/Under (56 ½) in a shoot out.

Patriots Offseason Predictions

I will assume that the NFL will not renew the Collective Bargaining Agreement in the offseason. To that end here are my off season predictions.

• Restricted Free Agents
  
  • Logan Mankins - $3 million for one year forcing another team to give up a first and third round pick should they try to sign him.
    
  • Stephen Gostkowski - $2.4 million for one year forcing another team to give up a first round pick should they try to sign him.
    
  • Pierre Woods – Pats will make him an offer in the $800,000 range but not the $1.7 million necessary for one year forcing another team to give up a second round pick should they try to sign him.
    
• Exclusive Rights Free Agents
  
  • Gary Guyton - $470,000 for one year
    
  • Bret Lockett - Unclear
    
• Unrestricted Free Agents
  
  • Vince Wilfork – Franchise Tag for $6.8 million. Wilfork will likely hold out until at least the start of the season but potentially through the first six games.
    
  • Tully Banta-Cain - $1.5 million per year for three years.
    
  • Kevin Faulk - $1.2 million for one year.
    
  • Stephen Neal - retired
    
  • Junior Seau - retired
    
  • Leigh Bodden – another team due to too much money. The Pats will offer him in the $2.5 million range for two to three years but another team will sign him to more money.
    
  • Jarvis Green – another team
    
  • Derrick Burgess – another team
    
  • Ben Watson- another team
    
  • Chris Hanson – another team
    
• Under Contract
  
  • Tom Brady – contract extension averaging $15 million per year for three or four years; May front load contract to 2010 so it gives the Pats more salary cap flexibility in the near future.
    
  • Adalius Thomas – cut

Playoff Predictions Revisited

So I no longer believe that the Chargers are going to win the Super Bowl. I need to continuously remind myself, "Norv Turner is the Chargers' coach. Norv Turner is the Chargers' coach."

My new prediction is the Colts over the Vikings in the Superbowl. The Jets and Ravens look like similar teams and the Colts didn't seem to have much of a problem with the Ravens last week. Even with Percy Harvin potentially out, Brett Farve will get the Vikings into the Superbowl.

Patriot Free Agents

The following players are scheduled to be free agents after the end of this season:

• Kevin Faulk
  
• Jarvis Green
  
• Stephen Neal
  
• Vince Wilfork
  
• Leigh Bodden
  
• Logan Mankins (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  
• Derrick Burgess
  
• Pierre Woods (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  
• Ben Watson
  
• Stephen Gostkowski (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  
• Junior Seau
  
• Chris Hanson
  
• Gary Guyton
  
• Bret Lockett
  

The Pats can choose to apply the franchise tag to one of the players on the list. It would be unsurprising if most of these players are not Patriots next season. Logan Mankins will probably remain a Patriot if no new Collective Bargaining Agreement is reached. As the Boston Globe reports, "Once the Patriots tender Mankins, any team that signs him to an offer sheet would have to surrender first- and third-round picks to the Patriots if they choose not to match. That threshold last year was $2.562 million, which is exceedingly affordable for a player of Mankins's caliber."

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round

• Jets over Bengals
  
• Cowboys over Eagles
  
• Patriots over Ravens
  
• Packers over Cardinals
  

Conference Round

• Colts over Jets
  
• Chargers over Patriots
  
• Packers over Saints
  
• Vikings over Cowboys
  

Championship Round

• Vikings over Packers
  
• Chargers over Colts
  

Superbowl

• Chargers over Vikings
  

Week 17 Prediction

Texans 23 Pats 17

Texans need this game badly and the Pats might prefer to lose! Seven points is too generous, however. The Pats have only lost by more than seven once this year. Even with Brian Hoyer and many subs, the Pats will cover the spread. Don't look for a high scoring game; 46 is high for a meaningless game for the Pats and a mediocre offense like Houston. Take the under.