Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Almost Famous

One of my questions on the Pats week 17 strategy for landing the 3rd or 4th seed was published in this week's Pats questions on ESPNBoston.com.

Past posts to Boston.com include one on the Pats 2009 draft and one on the Red Sox LaRoche for Kotchman deal.

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Week 16 Prediction

Pats 24 Jags 13

Pats cover the 8 point spread. Jacksonville has not been a scoring team on the road and will continue the trend to keep the score under the 43 ½ Over/Under.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Week 15 Prediction

Pats 24 Bills 16

Pats cover the 7 point spread but take the 40 ½ under.

Check out SI's "redraft" and see Sebastian Vollmer as the 8th overall pick! Of course the Pats had the chance to draft Michael Oher which SI rated as the #1 pick!

Friday, December 11, 2009

Adalius Thomas Revisited

This blog has been too kind to Adalius Thomas and his performance on the field. He has been unable to regularly get to the quarterback. His #3 salary on the Patriots behind Tom Brady and Randy Moss is totally unwarranted. Even though it will cause a very large salary cap hit of approximately $13.5 million, the Patriots will almost certainly cut (or trade) Thomas in the offseason. The Pats will be able to avoid paying Thomas the $4.9 million and $5.9 million salaries over the next two years.

There are a few possible scenarios to unfold for Thomas in the offseason…

Scenario 1: Uncapped Year

If the NFL is unable to come to a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) then the salary cap rules next year will mostly be suspended. It is somewhat unclear how the year will play out but the Patriots will be free to cut Adalius Thomas and take the entire $13.5 million salary cap hit in the year. Since this money has already been paid out as a bonus the Pats will largely be unaffected by getting rid of Thomas and his contract. It is possible that if the parties agree to a cap the following year there could be some consequences but they are far from clear. There is a high probability that the Pats will get off scot free by cutting Thomas in this scenario.

Scenario 2: Capped Year, Thomas cut before June 30th

In a capped year scenario the Pats will have to take an uncharacteristically large salary cap charge for a single player. For this year the Pats only have $3 million or so in "dead money." If they were to cut Thomas before June 30th the remainder of Thomas's $13.5 million prorated signing bonus will have to be counted against next year's salary cap! This would likely be the biggest hit the Pats have ever taken for a player not on the roster.

Scenario 3: Capped Year, Thomas cut after June 30th

If a player is cut after June 30th his salary cap charge can be split over the current and subsequent season. In this scenario the Pats can take two $6.75 million hits a year over 2010 and 2011.


Given Thomas's current performance it is difficult to believe that he will be a part of the team next year. How his departure affects the Patriots salary cap situation remains to be seen.

Week 14 Prediction

Pats 27 Panthers 14

13 ½ are a lot of points for any game especially where the favored team is faltering. Take the 13 ½ points and the under. The Pats and Panthers are unlikely to hit 44 total points since the Panthers offense is terrible.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Week 13 Prediction

Pats 27 Fins 17

The Pats will cover the 4 point spread. The last two Pats games in Miami were 48-28 and 49-28 so the 45 ½ under might be a little dangerous. Take it anyway as the Pats usually bounce back after a bad win.

NFL.com added a new "If the season ended today" webpage. Check it out.