Saturday, January 23, 2010

Patriots Offseason Predictions

I will assume that the NFL will not renew the Collective Bargaining Agreement in the offseason. To that end here are my off season predictions.

  • Restricted Free Agents
    • Logan Mankins - $3 million for one year forcing another team to give up a first and third round pick should they try to sign him.
    • Stephen Gostkowski - $2.4 million for one year forcing another team to give up a first round pick should they try to sign him.
    • Pierre Woods – Pats will make him an offer in the $800,000 range but not the $1.7 million necessary for one year forcing another team to give up a second round pick should they try to sign him.
  • Exclusive Rights Free Agents
    • Gary Guyton - $470,000 for one year
    • Bret Lockett - Unclear
  • Unrestricted Free Agents
    • Vince Wilfork – Franchise Tag for $6.8 million. Wilfork will likely hold out until at least the start of the season but potentially through the first six games.
    • Tully Banta-Cain - $1.5 million per year for three years.
    • Kevin Faulk - $1.2 million for one year.
    • Stephen Neal - retired
    • Junior Seau - retired
    • Leigh Bodden – another team due to too much money. The Pats will offer him in the $2.5 million range for two to three years but another team will sign him to more money.
    • Jarvis Green – another team
    • Derrick Burgess – another team
    • Ben Watson- another team
    • Chris Hanson – another team
  • Under Contract
    • Tom Brady – contract extension averaging $15 million per year for three or four years; May front load contract to 2010 so it gives the Pats more salary cap flexibility in the near future.
    • Adalius Thomas – cut

Playoff Predictions Revisited

So I no longer believe that the Chargers are going to win the Super Bowl. I need to continuously remind myself, "Norv Turner is the Chargers' coach. Norv Turner is the Chargers' coach."

My new prediction is the Colts over the Vikings in the Superbowl. The Jets and Ravens look like similar teams and the Colts didn't seem to have much of a problem with the Ravens last week. Even with Percy Harvin potentially out, Brett Farve will get the Vikings into the Superbowl.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Patriot Free Agents

The following players are scheduled to be free agents after the end of this season:

  • Kevin Faulk
  • Jarvis Green
  • Stephen Neal
  • Vince Wilfork
  • Leigh Bodden
  • Logan Mankins (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  • Derrick Burgess
  • Pierre Woods (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  • Ben Watson
  • Stephen Gostkowski (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  • Junior Seau
  • Chris Hanson
  • Gary Guyton
  • Bret Lockett

The Pats can choose to apply the franchise tag to one of the players on the list. It would be unsurprising if most of these players are not Patriots next season. Logan Mankins will probably remain a Patriot if no new Collective Bargaining Agreement is reached. As the Boston Globe reports, "Once the Patriots tender Mankins, any team that signs him to an offer sheet would have to surrender first- and third-round picks to the Patriots if they choose not to match. That threshold last year was $2.562 million, which is exceedingly affordable for a player of Mankins's caliber."

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round

  • Jets over Bengals
  • Cowboys over Eagles
  • Patriots over Ravens
  • Packers over Cardinals

Conference Round

  • Colts over Jets
  • Chargers over Patriots
  • Packers over Saints
  • Vikings over Cowboys

Championship Round

  • Vikings over Packers
  • Chargers over Colts


  • Chargers over Vikings

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Week 17 Prediction

Texans 23 Pats 17

Texans need this game badly and the Pats might prefer to lose! Seven points is too generous, however. The Pats have only lost by more than seven once this year. Even with Brian Hoyer and many subs, the Pats will cover the spread. Don't look for a high scoring game; 46 is high for a meaningless game for the Pats and a mediocre offense like Houston. Take the under.