Week 4 Prediction

Pats 27 Dolphins 24

Pats are favored in Miami by 1. Give the point and take the Pats as they should be able to move the ball against the Miami defense. Miami's offense will be successful against the Pats' D as well so take the over. 46 ½ is too low.

Week 3 Prediction

Pats 31 Bills 17

Pats will break the recent trend in covering the spread at home in Bills games by only winning by two touchdowns. The 14 ½ is too rich to take. Forty three points is too low so take the over.

Week 2 Prediction

Pats 24 Jets 17

Jets offensive output will improve with fewer penalties but the Pats offense has many more weapons than last year. Pats cover the 3 point spread and the total score beats the over of 38.

J-E-T-S

Jets preseason hype has been ridiculous. They get rid of aging 1,400 rusher, Thomas Jones and bring in aging 730 yard rusher LaDanian Tomlinson and everyone thinks this is a brilliant move. Antonio Cromartie has more children that he can't name than interceptions over the past two seasons and everyone focuses what he did in 2007. Jason Taylor is 36 years old! How much does he have in the tank?

2002 is the last year the Jets won the division. Don't look for that to change for the 2010 season. Pats win the division. Jets are a wild card team.

Patriots’ Preseason Prediction

Pats are going to be much better than all of the pundits think. Patriots' offense will make up for some of the defensive deficiencies. Defensive backfield will gel for the second half of the season. Pats special teams will be better than past years. Pats will surprise with a 12 win season.

This week's prediction…

Pats 27 Bengals 24

Bengals will cover the 4.5 point spread but both team's offenses will blow away the 44.5 over/under.

Super Bowl Prediction

Colts 34 Saints 24

Colts beat the spread (Colts by 5) and both teams beat the Over/Under (56 ½) in a shoot out.

Patriots Offseason Predictions

I will assume that the NFL will not renew the Collective Bargaining Agreement in the offseason. To that end here are my off season predictions.

• Restricted Free Agents
  
  • Logan Mankins - $3 million for one year forcing another team to give up a first and third round pick should they try to sign him.
    
  • Stephen Gostkowski - $2.4 million for one year forcing another team to give up a first round pick should they try to sign him.
    
  • Pierre Woods – Pats will make him an offer in the $800,000 range but not the $1.7 million necessary for one year forcing another team to give up a second round pick should they try to sign him.
    
• Exclusive Rights Free Agents
  
  • Gary Guyton - $470,000 for one year
    
  • Bret Lockett - Unclear
    
• Unrestricted Free Agents
  
  • Vince Wilfork – Franchise Tag for $6.8 million. Wilfork will likely hold out until at least the start of the season but potentially through the first six games.
    
  • Tully Banta-Cain - $1.5 million per year for three years.
    
  • Kevin Faulk - $1.2 million for one year.
    
  • Stephen Neal - retired
    
  • Junior Seau - retired
    
  • Leigh Bodden – another team due to too much money. The Pats will offer him in the $2.5 million range for two to three years but another team will sign him to more money.
    
  • Jarvis Green – another team
    
  • Derrick Burgess – another team
    
  • Ben Watson- another team
    
  • Chris Hanson – another team
    
• Under Contract
  
  • Tom Brady – contract extension averaging $15 million per year for three or four years; May front load contract to 2010 so it gives the Pats more salary cap flexibility in the near future.
    
  • Adalius Thomas – cut

Playoff Predictions Revisited

So I no longer believe that the Chargers are going to win the Super Bowl. I need to continuously remind myself, "Norv Turner is the Chargers' coach. Norv Turner is the Chargers' coach."

My new prediction is the Colts over the Vikings in the Superbowl. The Jets and Ravens look like similar teams and the Colts didn't seem to have much of a problem with the Ravens last week. Even with Percy Harvin potentially out, Brett Farve will get the Vikings into the Superbowl.

Patriot Free Agents

The following players are scheduled to be free agents after the end of this season:

• Kevin Faulk
  
• Jarvis Green
  
• Stephen Neal
  
• Vince Wilfork
  
• Leigh Bodden
  
• Logan Mankins (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  
• Derrick Burgess
  
• Pierre Woods (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  
• Ben Watson
  
• Stephen Gostkowski (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  
• Junior Seau
  
• Chris Hanson
  
• Gary Guyton
  
• Bret Lockett
  

The Pats can choose to apply the franchise tag to one of the players on the list. It would be unsurprising if most of these players are not Patriots next season. Logan Mankins will probably remain a Patriot if no new Collective Bargaining Agreement is reached. As the Boston Globe reports, "Once the Patriots tender Mankins, any team that signs him to an offer sheet would have to surrender first- and third-round picks to the Patriots if they choose not to match. That threshold last year was $2.562 million, which is exceedingly affordable for a player of Mankins's caliber."

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round

• Jets over Bengals
  
• Cowboys over Eagles
  
• Patriots over Ravens
  
• Packers over Cardinals
  

Conference Round

• Colts over Jets
  
• Chargers over Patriots
  
• Packers over Saints
  
• Vikings over Cowboys
  

Championship Round

• Vikings over Packers
  
• Chargers over Colts
  

Superbowl

• Chargers over Vikings