Super Bowl Prediction

Colts 34 Saints 24

Colts beat the spread (Colts by 5) and both teams beat the Over/Under (56 ½) in a shoot out.

Patriots Offseason Predictions

I will assume that the NFL will not renew the Collective Bargaining Agreement in the offseason. To that end here are my off season predictions.

• Restricted Free Agents
  
  • Logan Mankins - $3 million for one year forcing another team to give up a first and third round pick should they try to sign him.
    
  • Stephen Gostkowski - $2.4 million for one year forcing another team to give up a first round pick should they try to sign him.
    
  • Pierre Woods – Pats will make him an offer in the $800,000 range but not the $1.7 million necessary for one year forcing another team to give up a second round pick should they try to sign him.
    
• Exclusive Rights Free Agents
  
  • Gary Guyton - $470,000 for one year
    
  • Bret Lockett - Unclear
    
• Unrestricted Free Agents
  
  • Vince Wilfork – Franchise Tag for $6.8 million. Wilfork will likely hold out until at least the start of the season but potentially through the first six games.
    
  • Tully Banta-Cain - $1.5 million per year for three years.
    
  • Kevin Faulk - $1.2 million for one year.
    
  • Stephen Neal - retired
    
  • Junior Seau - retired
    
  • Leigh Bodden – another team due to too much money. The Pats will offer him in the $2.5 million range for two to three years but another team will sign him to more money.
    
  • Jarvis Green – another team
    
  • Derrick Burgess – another team
    
  • Ben Watson- another team
    
  • Chris Hanson – another team
    
• Under Contract
  
  • Tom Brady – contract extension averaging $15 million per year for three or four years; May front load contract to 2010 so it gives the Pats more salary cap flexibility in the near future.
    
  • Adalius Thomas – cut

Playoff Predictions Revisited

So I no longer believe that the Chargers are going to win the Super Bowl. I need to continuously remind myself, "Norv Turner is the Chargers' coach. Norv Turner is the Chargers' coach."

My new prediction is the Colts over the Vikings in the Superbowl. The Jets and Ravens look like similar teams and the Colts didn't seem to have much of a problem with the Ravens last week. Even with Percy Harvin potentially out, Brett Farve will get the Vikings into the Superbowl.

Patriot Free Agents

The following players are scheduled to be free agents after the end of this season:

• Kevin Faulk
  
• Jarvis Green
  
• Stephen Neal
  
• Vince Wilfork
  
• Leigh Bodden
  
• Logan Mankins (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  
• Derrick Burgess
  
• Pierre Woods (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  
• Ben Watson
  
• Stephen Gostkowski (restricted free agent if no new CBA)
  
• Junior Seau
  
• Chris Hanson
  
• Gary Guyton
  
• Bret Lockett
  

The Pats can choose to apply the franchise tag to one of the players on the list. It would be unsurprising if most of these players are not Patriots next season. Logan Mankins will probably remain a Patriot if no new Collective Bargaining Agreement is reached. As the Boston Globe reports, "Once the Patriots tender Mankins, any team that signs him to an offer sheet would have to surrender first- and third-round picks to the Patriots if they choose not to match. That threshold last year was $2.562 million, which is exceedingly affordable for a player of Mankins's caliber."

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round

• Jets over Bengals
  
• Cowboys over Eagles
  
• Patriots over Ravens
  
• Packers over Cardinals
  

Conference Round

• Colts over Jets
  
• Chargers over Patriots
  
• Packers over Saints
  
• Vikings over Cowboys
  

Championship Round

• Vikings over Packers
  
• Chargers over Colts
  

Superbowl

• Chargers over Vikings
  

Week 17 Prediction

Texans 23 Pats 17

Texans need this game badly and the Pats might prefer to lose! Seven points is too generous, however. The Pats have only lost by more than seven once this year. Even with Brian Hoyer and many subs, the Pats will cover the spread. Don't look for a high scoring game; 46 is high for a meaningless game for the Pats and a mediocre offense like Houston. Take the under.

Almost Famous

One of my questions on the Pats week 17 strategy for landing the 3^rd or 4^th seed was published in this week's Pats questions on ESPNBoston.com.

Past posts to Boston.com include one on the Pats 2009 draft and one on the Red Sox LaRoche for Kotchman deal.

Week 16 Prediction

Pats 24 Jags 13

Pats cover the 8 point spread. Jacksonville has not been a scoring team on the road and will continue the trend to keep the score under the 43 ½ Over/Under.

Week 15 Prediction

Pats 24 Bills 16

Pats cover the 7 point spread but take the 40 ½ under.

Check out SI's "redraft" and see Sebastian Vollmer as the 8^th overall pick! Of course the Pats had the chance to draft Michael Oher which SI rated as the #1 pick!

Adalius Thomas Revisited

This blog has been too kind to Adalius Thomas and his performance on the field. He has been unable to regularly get to the quarterback. His #3 salary on the Patriots behind Tom Brady and Randy Moss is totally unwarranted. Even though it will cause a very large salary cap hit of approximately $13.5 million, the Patriots will almost certainly cut (or trade) Thomas in the offseason. The Pats will be able to avoid paying Thomas the $4.9 million and $5.9 million salaries over the next two years.

There are a few possible scenarios to unfold for Thomas in the offseason…

Scenario 1: Uncapped Year

If the NFL is unable to come to a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) then the salary cap rules next year will mostly be suspended. It is somewhat unclear how the year will play out but the Patriots will be free to cut Adalius Thomas and take the entire $13.5 million salary cap hit in the year. Since this money has already been paid out as a bonus the Pats will largely be unaffected by getting rid of Thomas and his contract. It is possible that if the parties agree to a cap the following year there could be some consequences but they are far from clear. There is a high probability that the Pats will get off scot free by cutting Thomas in this scenario.

Scenario 2: Capped Year, Thomas cut before June 30th

In a capped year scenario the Pats will have to take an uncharacteristically large salary cap charge for a single player. For this year the Pats only have $3 million or so in "dead money." If they were to cut Thomas before June 30^th the remainder of Thomas's $13.5 million prorated signing bonus will have to be counted against next year's salary cap! This would likely be the biggest hit the Pats have ever taken for a player not on the roster.

Scenario 3: Capped Year, Thomas cut after June 30th

If a player is cut after June 30^th his salary cap charge can be split over the current and subsequent season. In this scenario the Pats can take two $6.75 million hits a year over 2010 and 2011.

 

Given Thomas's current performance it is difficult to believe that he will be a part of the team next year. How his departure affects the Patriots salary cap situation remains to be seen.