Divisional Round Prediction

Pats 31 Jets 20

Pats cover the 9 point spread and both teams will outscore the 44 1/2 point over/under. Rex Ryan will put his foot in his mouth. Bring on the Steelers!

End of Regular Season Report Card

Unable to keep up with the second half 8-0 New England Patriots, I was still a respectable 6-2 against the line and 5-3 for the over/under which brings the season to 12-4 against the line and 11-5 for the over/under.

More impressive were the following two pre-season predictions:

• "Pats are going to be much better than all of the pundits think. Patriots' offense will make up for some of the defensive deficiencies. Defensive backfield will gel for the second half of the season. Pats special teams will be better than past years. Pats will surprise with a 12 win season."
  
• "2002 is the last year the Jets won the division. Don't look for that to change for the 2010 season. Pats win the division. Jets are a wild card team."
  

While I sold the Pats short by two games I was one of the few who predicted that the Pats would have a good season, that they would win the division, that the defensive backfield would gel for the second half of the season, and that special teams would be a key this season. Unlike the Patriots I will not take the high road, to all of you who made fun of me for my starry eyed Patriots predictions… Hah!

Week 17 Prediction

Pats 24 Dolphins 17

Not a good week for betting in a meaningless game. I was going to say that Sparano's job might be on the line but it has since been revealed that the Dolphins will keep him on another year. The Pats would do better letting the Dolphins win with the hopes that Raiders lose so their first round draft pick is higher. (This pick was from the Richard Seymour trade.) The Pats will ignore such advice and push hard to win taking out slightly injured players early in the game. I will assume that Tom Brady falls in this category with Brian Hoyer filling in for him. Even with the second stringers the Pats will be able to cover the 3 ½ point line and both teams will make it over the 43 point over/under.

Week 16 Prediction

Pats 31 Bills 20

Pats are not going to lose a hat and t-shirt game against the Bills. They have a chance to wrap up the division, first round bye, and top overall seed. Pats will cover the 8 point spread and both teams will beat the 44 ½ over/under.

Week 15 Prediction

Pats 31 Packers 17

Assuming Aaron Rodgers doesn't play on Sunday it's a lock for the Pats to beat the 9 point spread. It would be pretty shocking if the teams didn't hit the 44 point over.

Week 14 Prediction

Pats 27 Bears 21

The Bears have beaten many weak teams with Philly and Green Bay as the only exceptions. The Bears have been perfect since their bye week with a five game win streak. Expect the streak to end this Sunday at Soldier Field. Most of the Bears' games have been close and this one will be no exception. The Pats will just cover the 3 point spread and expect the teams to beat the 44 point over/under.

Patriots 2010 Contract Expirations

The Patriots are in unusually good position going into the offseason. With the uncertainty of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the Patriots have done a good job getting a majority of their roster signed through the 2011 season or beyond.

Logan Mankins is one player who probably jumps out at most people as someone the Patriots would want to get signed. No one on the rest of the list below would be a likely candidate for the franchise tag. If the new CBA has a franchise tag, the Machiavellian Bill Belichick will likely consider applying the tag to Mankins. Given the uncertainty with Stephen Neal's future at right guard, it would seem to be prudent to franchise Mankins. At the very least, Belichick could get a draft pick with a sign and trade.

For other players, my guess is that the Pats sign Matt Light for next year. It is difficult to replace a left tackle and Light/Vollmer at the tackles is likely a better combination than Vollmer/anyone. The one x-factor could be if the Pats get a top tackle in the 2011 draft.

 

Matt Light, OT, 32, $4.5 million, Free Agent

Fred Taylor, RB, 34, $2 million, Free Agent

Kevin Faulk, RB, 34, $2 million, Free Agent

Jarrad Page, DB, 26, $1.759 million, Free Agent

Sammy Morris, RB, 33, $900K, Free Agent

Gerard Warren, DL, 32, $900K, Free Agent

Logan Mankins, G, 28, $816K, Free Agent

Quinn Ojinnaka, OL, 26, $640K, Free Agent

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, 25, $470K, Restricted Free Agent

Tracy White, LB, 29, $470K, Free Agent

Ryan Wendell, OL, 24, $395K, Restricted Free Agent

Kyle Arrington, CB, 24, $395K, Exclusive Rights Free Agent

Shayne Graham, K, 32, $216K, Free Agent

Week 13 Prediction

Pats 27 Jets 20

Pats have been deadly at home and I wouldn't expect them to reverse the trend especially during a Monday night game against the Jets with ten days between games. Pats will beat the 3 point line and Pats and Jets will beat the over of 45.

Week 12 Prediction

Pats 38 Lions 20

Pats cover the 6 ½ points and both teams hit the 51 point over. Happy Thanksgiving.

Week 11 Prediction

Pats 31 Colts 24

The Colts have won one game on the road this season. Don't look for this stat to change especially with so many key personnel on the injury report. IR: Dallas Clark. OUT: Joseph Addai, Gary Brackett, Mike Hart, Bob Sanderrs, Clint Sessions, Justin Tryon. QUESTIONABLE: Austin Collie, Kelvin Hayden, Reggie Wayne, Blair White, and more. The Colts aren't built like the Patriots with a big middle class of players. The Colts have a bunch of high salaries at the top and many of those guys are injured. The Pats will cover the 4 point spread. Both teams will hit the 50 point over.